The prediction of Nasdaq: Real rise??

This posting is on the NASDAQ Market

The spread of Corona 19 is weakening now.

Now, let's all cheer up a little bit!!!

 

Back to the post,

The atmosphere in the stock market is very good these days.

I think we need some risk management in this atmosphere.

 

Nasdaq has broken through 8800 and most stocks are on the rise.

I would like to introduce it to you because it is at a high point in the short term and there is a risk in the long term.

 

 

1.Default Risk

 

With the United States at the forefornt, there is a possibility that the fiscal deficit of each country will increase significantly and the national default will continue to occur. For example, half of the world's counries have already asked the International Monetary Fund for a bailout.

 

The situation in the United States is not so optimistic.

We've come up with a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package, but we've already run out of funds for the small business emergency loan program. Germany's 30 percent GDP stimulus package and Japan's 106 trillion yen stimulus packaage are also contributing to the default crisis.

 

This default will gradually spread from neughboring countries in Europe to advanced countries. Especially, Spain and Italy's debt has been already high before Corona, and now there is a possibility of default in that Corona is the most serious damage among European Countries.

 

2.Double Dip Potential 

 

In addition, there is a possibility of deflation.

China's economic growth in the first quarter fell to minus 6.8 percent, the first case the 'corona shock' has been shown as indicator.

 

The future GDP announcements of each country will show this situation more clearly.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New york said a full recovery would not be possible by the end fo the year and feared a worsening economic indicators in the second quarter.

 

It;s not far long to know the extent of the recessoin.

Recently, the price of WTI crude oil failed to show a proper rebound despite OPEC+ countries agreeing to cut production. This indicates that the degree of deflation is severe.

 

3.Technical Analysis 

It's a one-day chart.

We have completed 5-wave of rise in the current short-term picture.

This means a short-term high point. Even a little bit higher, NASDAQ is likely to fall under resistance.

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This time, we need to check the direction of the stock through the movement of the falling 3-wave.