Crude Oil Prediction: How we can understand?

This posting is about crude oil.

Nowadays crude oil has been receiving a lot a attention recently.

Today, I'd like to show you what the current oil price situation is based on basic/technical analysis.

 

Posting order is 

 

1. Rare hopes

2. The fall of oil?

3. Technical analysis

 

Let's go in this order

 

1.Rare Hopes

Currently, the stock market and oil prices show a decoupling relationship.

 

The stock market is counting on a recovery and shifting more attention to easing and treating containment measures than Corona 19 itself.

 

Te U.S stock market rose for the second straight week due to this mood.

The S&P 500 index also rose 3 percent for the 2 weeks, the longest gain since mid-February.

 

But this is wishful thinking.

 

The reality is that the number of confirmed cases of Corona 19 worldwide has exceeded 2,330,000 and the number of deaths has risen to 161,000.

 

First of all, Pharmaceutical companies say the rapid development of treatments is not a fait accompli.

These unrealistic promises are similar to those in the 1980s, when AIDS broke out.

Thiry-five years later, no vaccine or cure has been developed.

 

Also the real economy is more gloomy.

Unemployment claims in the U.S continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with 5.2million peope applying for unemployment benefits last week alone.

 

This kind of situation is a factor that reduce the demand for oil.

It is expectedto reduce oil deman by 29 million barrels a day in April compared to the previous year.

 

2. The fall of oil?

 

An important criterion for determining oil price is whether oil demand will recover to pre-crisis levels even after the end of Corona 19.

 

With Corona19, the world is making a new normal.

 

As telecommuting expands, commuting is elimineated and international conferences held around the world are being replayed by video conference.

 

It indicates a decrease in energy demand.

 

The IEA claims oil consumption will peak in 2030. 

Nihon keizai say Corona 19 con move this time foward.

 

And economists say the recent drop in demand is unlikley to come back to the usual level, at least by 2021.

 

3.Technical analysis

 

1D CANDLE

The current moving average is reverse array. 

So trend is falling

 

We're only going to see a rebound to rise, but we've never seen one.

Even if you buy it, I recommend you buy it after showing support once more after the rise.

 

At present, not buying better than buying.

If you really want to invest in crude oil, you'd better buy overseas or demestic related stocks.